Brian Hutchinson of Postmedia News know his stuff:

Assignment Kandahar: Afghanistan’s fiery, fragile future

Nakhonay village. One month later, the man atop the donkey blew himself up, wounding three Canadian soldiers and several local children.
Brian Hutchinson/National Post

The war that Canadian soldiers are helping wage in Afghanistan is not being lost. Having spent nearly six months in the country since 2006, most of that time embedded with our troops, I’ve just come home again, convinced of it.

But the war isn’t being won, either; the conflict, with sporadic fighting and death by remote control, just continues.

So it will, barring some miracle truce, and long after the last Canadian battle group has left Kandahar province next summer.

Other armies that comprise the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) have enough capacity — if not the desire — to keep killing Taliban with relative ease, for many years. The United States might one day reduce its troop count in Afghanistan but having established its presence there with massive military fortresses, it won’t just up and leave.

The Taliban, for their part, have the resolve and resources to see that their fight lasts.

If anything is being lost, it’s the counterinsurgency, the crucial allied attempt to win local confidence and co-operation. Without those, this long war cannot be won.

The counterinsurgency is failing in the hinterland. Rural Afghans are still wary of foreign troops, even after almost nine years of intervention. They don’t trust their own politicians, whom they accuse of corruption and double-dealing. They’re frightened of the Taliban, who dominate village society and who use a medieval system of justice to mete out rough punishment and perform executions.

The situation is worst in rural Kandahar, where Canadian soldiers have operated since early 2006 and where they have never been made to feel welcome. Coalition soldiers no longer speak of winning local “hearts and minds.”

Kandaharis are in “self-survival mode,” a senior Canadian officer serving in Kandahar told me recently. “They’ve lived with war for 30 years,” the officer said. “They don’t trust anyone outside of their immediate family.”..

Read on. Meanwhile:

Afghan governor killed in rising violence in north

A powerful bomb killed an outspoken Afghan governor and 19 other worshippers in a crowded mosque Friday in northern Afghanistan, where insurgents are trying to expand their influence beyond the embattled south.

A wounded survivor said he believed a suicide bomber praying to the right of the governor carried out the attack, which wounded 35 people and took place in Taluqan, the capital of Takhar province.

Map locates Afghanistan’s Takhar province, where the governor was among the people killed in a deadly mosque blast

The death of Mohammad Omar, the governor of neighboring Kunduz province, came just days after he publicly warned of escalating threats from Taliban and foreign fighters across the north. If steps aren’t taken to counter them, Afghan and coalition forces will face “disaster,” he said.

“Violence in north and northeastern Afghanistan will increase like it has in Kandahar and Helmand,” Omar said, referring to two provinces in the south where the Taliban have their greatest influence. “It will be very difficult for the government and the international community to conduct clearing operations and fight gunbattles in all parts of the country.”

Security has been deteriorating for the past two years in Kunduz and surrounding provinces — known hideouts for the Taliban, al-Qaida and fighters from other militant factions, including the Haqqani network, Hizb-i-Islami and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan.

NATO has sent more troops to the north [including a US Army brigade combat team, doing most of the offensive ISAF fighting in the region I reckon] and has been pushing harder into militant-held areas the past several months…

Update: Back to business as usual:

Supply route for NATO convoys opened in Pakistan
…
A second supply route through Chaman in western Pakistan was open during the Torkham closure, [emphasis added, bet you didn't know that, near Quetta on road to Kandahar] but the Pakistani Taliban has threatened violence on any route used for NATO purposes.

Background on trucking rackets:

The real question about Pakistan’s border closure

Mark
Ottawa