Aggregate Polling Numbers (n = 5,098)

There were three polls released today with Conservative leads ranging from seven to 14 percentage points over the Liberals. Even in the favourable Harris Decima poll, Michael Ignatieff still ranks fifth of all five leaders (even including the separatist) for having the most unfavourable ranking as a political leader.

In the Harris-Decima survey, the Conservatives lead everywhere except Quebec, where the Bloc continues its usual dominance. Second place is being contended between the Conservatives and Liberals, with the former holding a four-point lead. The Conservatives lead the Liberals by eight points in Ontario, six points in B.C., 28 points in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, 33 points in the Albertan stronghold and finally just two points in Atlantic Canada. (It should be noted that the margins of error are only below six per cent in Quebec, Ontario and nationally.

Leger Marketing has much different figures, but their samples are admittedly too high in some provinces to pull any reliable indicators from it. The Conservatives lead the Liberals in Ontario by five percentage points, 29 points in Manitoba and Saskatchewan (a match with Harris-Decima), 40 points in Alberta (+7 over Harris-Decima) and 21 points in B.C., significantly higher than other results. The two are tied in Quebec, while the Liberals are shown as leading by four points in Atlantic Canada.

One of the interesting parts of the Leger poll is that there’s a question of decided voters, with 72 per cent of Green voters indicating their vote could still change, offering a clue as to why the Greens always poll higher than they place. Conservative and Bloc voters are most decided at 64 per cent, while 55 per cent of Liberals are decided and just 43 per cent of NDP have made up their mind.

Equally interesting is that the most “trusted” leader in Ottawa is a man who wants to separate from Canada. Jack Layton is second-most trusted, followed by “don’t know/refused”, Stephen Harper, before settling in near the bottom at 6 per cent for Michael Ignatieff. Just 3 per cent identified Elizabeth May as most trusted.

Nanos Research has the Conservatives leading the Liberals in every province, similar to the Harris-Decima poll. They lead by eight points in Atlantic Canada (with an unreliable margin of error of 10), eight points in Quebec, six points in Ontario, 28 points in the prairies and 26 points in B.C.