This has been blazingly obvious to anyone who thinks about it–I guess that excludes governments fanatic about CO2 emissions reductions.  Good on Greg Keenan of the Globe and Mail (pity story is just in the Business section):

Green car revolution won’t be as advertised

An electric car made by Mini [test drive by The Economist]

The looming takeover of the world’s roads by “green” vehicles is hitting a yellow light.

The tens of billions of dollars being spent by auto makers and governments to develop environmentally friendly vehicles won’t transform the fleet by 2020 unless they lead to a breakthrough that dramatically reduces costs, consulting firm J.D. Power and Associates said in a study examining how plug-in hybrids and battery-powered vehicles will fare in the coming decade.

“Auto makers will be challenged to convince consumers to invest in these relatively expensive and unproven technologies,” said the 70-page study, called Global Hybrid and Electric Vehicles: More Hope than Reality During the Next Decade…

The cost of hybrid-electric vehicles and battery-powered cars and trucks will limit consumer demand, J.D. Power noted. They will make up just 7.3 per cent of the 70.9 million vehicles that will be sold globally in 2020, the report predicted.

Consumers won’t embrace such vehicles in large numbers unless there is a big jump in the price of gas, co-ordinated government policies to encourage drivers to switch out of internal combustion engines, or a major breakthrough in the technologies that would reduce cost and improve consumer confidence.

“None of these scenarios are believed to be likely during the next 10 years,” the study said.

The race to develop environmentally friendly vehicles is being driven mainly by government regulations that require auto makers to reduce the emissions generated by their fleets…

What Americans (and lots of Canadians) really like to buy:

Ford just keeps on truckin’

More reality:

Cars and electric fairyland: Not much jolt from the Volt

Also:

Auto emissions: Electric reLeaf?

Mark
Ottawa