The headline isn’t meant to be offensive to the NDP leader. It’s just the bizarre circumstances that has thrust the man, for whom the moniker was invented for his stance on Afghanistan, to a close second in the latest political polls.
The orange revolution or orange crush, whichever you prefer, has culminated with the newest poll showing the NDP within the statistical margin of error of reaching the front-running Conservative Party.
The latest Forum Research poll shows the NDP polling at 31 per cent, just three points back from the Conservatives, while the woeful Liberal Party is down to 22 per cent under the frail leadership of Michael Ignatieff. Indeed, it’s only the former Harvard professor who doesn’t seem to realize how far his party has plummeted as soft Liberal support has decidedly moved to the NDP in the past week.
Ignatieff is once again openly discussing the possibility of leading a coalition government following the imminent demise of the Liberals in next week’s election. The only problem with that scenario is the NDP would have little incentive to allow Ignatieff to lead the government while finishing in a dismal third place. No, that honour would fall to Jack.
Given that 34 per cent is only 3 per cent lower than the 2008 Conservative showing, the NDP fortunes can only really be attributed to Michael Ignatieff’s inability to connect with Canadians. In fact, the public appetite for the bushy-browed leader is so feeble that the party is polling six points below one of the worst showings in Liberal history, accomplished by the charismatically-challenged Stephane Dion.
The orange revolution is not a blip on the radar either, as the latest Ekos poll shows the NDP trailing the Conservatives by six points, but still solidly in second place with a six point lead on the lowly Liberals.
The most optimistic numbers show the NDP growing to a staggering 108 seats in the House of Commons, with Jack moving into Stornoway and forming the official opposition. The Liberals would be reduced to 60 seats, and the Bloc Quebecois nearly decimated to three seats. Combined, the coalition would have 171 seats to 137 for the Conservatives, meaning the government could be formed without the help of the separatists, but an NDP-heavy cabinet.
The idea of both an NDP opposition or coalition government led by the NDP has to send shivers down the spines of many a voter. Although the Conservatives haven’t exactly been the best fiscal stewards during the past three years, much of their spending was wholeheartedly endorsed by the other parties, who demanded stimulus during the recession. Much of the the most vocal calls for spending were made by NDP MPs in the House of Commons.
It’s already been admitted by the party that an NDP government wouldn’t be able to bash its round peg platform into the square hole of economic reality, nor do I suspect the NDP really ever expected to have to make good on many of its hare-brained promises.
Gone, however, is the belief the NDP would sap away Liberal support, enabling the Conservatives to win their long-coveted majority. Instead, it would seem that a flood of hand-sitting voters from 2008 decided to make it out to vote in the advance polls, with a record 2 million people casting their votes over the Easter weekend.
Although the most likely scenario is another Conservative minority, the NDP winning second place is a permanent game-changer, and could be just the thing to set off a leftwing coalition government. The polls leading up to voting day are going to make the election nobody wanted very exciting. Ironically, if the NDP do manage to win over enough votes in the final week to form the government, we could see the Liberals and Conservatives form a coalition of their own to stop the economic insanity of the NDP from prevailing.
On the other hand, a Con-Lib coalition will hurt the Liberals’ chances of recovery between this election and the next one. Being fed up with Harper & co is a very widespread feeling (outside of the willfully self-blinding Conservative base), stronger these days than the mutual distrust between the Liberals and the NDP.
I don’t think we need to fear any economic insanity from a minority NDP gov’t (especially if they have to negotiate for Liberal votes) or an NDP-Lib coalition (with Lib input into economic matters).
I do, actually, fear an NDP-driven government when it comes to economic stability. Previous experiments on a provincial scale have always proven disastrous. But you’re right, so long as it’s a minority government there’s always enough moderating influence from other parties.
Maybe Canada needs to experience an NDP government. To see how great Harper has been.
Am I the only person who seems to think that the MSM are being completely irresponsible in giving the NDP a free pass on this. Oh it’s wonderful the NDP have overtaken the LPC ! Maybe we’ll have a coalition led by the NDP instead of the Liberals.
Maybe we should be looking at some of the ideas(!) in Jack’s platform and some of his supporting players.
If they stay in second place I think their platform will become more closely scrutinized over the next few days.
I think the entire reason to trigger an election was to create the conditions to form a coalition government.
It seems the calculations of the planners have gone out the window, the Liberals will be in a lose lose situation regardless of the likely result.
All we can hope for is enough vote splitting to send the CPC candidates up the middle for a win. Second best would be the “Blue Liberals” refusing to join a socialist coalition and crossing the floor or caucusing on their own.
We will live in interesting (in the Chinese sense) times
What’s interesting is that the current polls show that an LPC NDP coalition could be accomplished without the support of the separatists, the real dealbreaker for a lot of people.
“Always” is overstated. While the last BC NDP govt (Glen Clark) was indeed pretty crap, it seems to me that previous NDP govts there (e.g. Dave Barrett) were relatively successful.
As for Ontario, the collective total apeshit reaction of the monied interests there in response to Bob Rae’s electoral success was what caused all the trouble; nothing to do with Rae’s policies. They had decided to create chaos as long as he was in power, no matter what he did.
The jury’s still out on Darrell Dexter here in NS (though so far I admit I’m not terribly happy with him).
When Layton said, “we have to negotiate with the Taliban” he was way out there. Now everybody thinks it is a good idea. Sorta like medicare and Tommy Douglas.
From Daniel Peters:
“Being fed up with Harper & co is a very widespread feeling (outside of the willfully self-blinding Conservative base), stronger these days than the mutual distrust between the Liberal and NDP.”
Where does one start with this statement? Where do you see the this support from, exactly? Could it be 3 major cities and portions of the Atlantic Provinces? Are any of those places flourishing? Have they ever?
This scenario that you are supporting will be the absolute worst thing for national unity in your lifetime. AS well, from you, I would love to know exactly what it is that you have against this Prime Minister?
I lived in NS and I’ll tell you, you are conditioned to a nanny state mentality and get nothing. As much as I loved being there, I could not believe how settled everyone was with the taxes and got nothing in return. Quit blaming the federal govt and blame your own decisions. Your current NDP govt raised the HST and you bitch about Conservatives? Wow, just wow!
If by any chance T. Jack became PM, and the Dippers had ministers in charge of say some of Foreign Affairs, Defence and Public Safety, can you imagine the reductions in, and cut off of in some cases of, defence–and esp. intelligence–exchanges by our closest allies?
Not to mention the security problems for Canadian organizations–many of which would maintain if the NDP occupied some such offices under a coalition with a Liberal PM.
Mark
Ottawa
What do I have against him?
Stephen Harper has done more than any other PM in my lifetime to poison the political process, and to poison the atmosphere of political dialogue. Consider his frequent use of character assassination as a political tool (the case of Richard Colvin was particularly charming, but there are plenty of others). Consider his continued efforts to dumb down the populace by misrepresenting the rules of our political system (pretending that having a plurality of seats provides some sort of special rights). Consider his attempts to politicize government departments and blur the boundaries between partisan concerns and government business. And I’m just getting started.
On top of all that, the level of corruption is already up to Chrétien levels, if not worse. But apparently, Conservatives have no problem with that, as long as it’s *their* party doing it.
And I’ve lost track of the number of outright, blatant, brazen lies Harper has been spewing during the campaign. He doesn’t have an honest molecule in his body.
This is bigger than left-versus-right economic questions.
But if you really want to turn to economics, Harper doesn’t have anything to recommend himself there either. Canada got through the recession fairly well because of Liberal policies, opposed by Harper: Strong financial-sector regulations, and the prevention of big-bank mergers.
Honestly, I can’t see ANY reason at all to vote Conservative. I don’t know what Conservative voters are smoking.
By the way, I was curious what you thought about Sarposa.
The CPC and their supporters have been pushing the NDP in Ontario for a long time now. You can stop blaming the media and start looking at yourselves.
“As for Ontario, the collective total apeshit reaction of the monied interests there in response to Bob Rae’s electoral success was what caused all the trouble; nothing to do with Rae’s policies”
That has to be up there with the most idiotic statements ever made and could only have been made by someone on drugs or a parisan hack. Bob Rae was a disaster on every level and he was less of an extremist NDP than lunatic Jack. As for why anyone would vote conservative, what alternative do we have, expensive socialism from the liberals or radical expensive socialism from the NDP As for lying, Layton lies, like all socilists, evey time he opens his mouth
It shows there is still a long way to getting the Talibs
under control, and that there is still a long way to go before
the Afghan security forces are really up to much.
Not good but still not time to give up hope.
Mark
Ottawa
LOL, yeah, before medicare and Tommy Douglas Canadians were dying left and right I guess.
Jack has been a champagne socialist for years, if he actually has to create a platform based in reality his head will implode.
+1, I read that monied interests line and though of Jacques Parizeau. Socialists, mentally unstable since Marx and Lenin. (Stalin didn’t help the cause much either).
NDP fortunes can only really be attributed to Michael Ignatieff’s inability to connect with Canadians.
Wrong-o, bucko. Typical insulated echo-chamber assertion-style thinking. There are many factors at play here… Jack’s impressive comfort in French leapt out to me in the French debate, for example. Many voters have told journalists they find Duceppe angry and incoherent this campaign. The Liberals were DOA in Quebec before Ignatieff was even crowned. Seeing the progessive/left vote coalesce around Jack (imo the most bilingual candidate) in a vote-rich province that generally votes Bloc, other progressives see a wagon to jump on.
And there are other factors beyond just that.
I skipped the rest of your mediocre ramblings.
“I skipped the rest of your mediocre ramblings.”
Thank goodness for that!
As one of the victim’s of Barrett’s deliberate destruction of the B.C. mining industry (dirty capalist enterprises you know) I take strong issue with that. As a consulting engineer/geologist, it wasn’t too hard for me to find work elsewhere (mostly overseas actually) but for the thousands of miners thrown out of work it was a very tough go. Barrett’s refugees had to pull up stakes and look for jobs all over Canada and, because the industry has never fully recovered, very few of them returned to B.C. With record metal today’s prices, there should be a resurgence but, thanks to the US-funded environmental obstructionism, a full recovery is still only a dream.
Harper is a jerk but, he’s only one man. I’ll still be voting CPC thanks to the overt “screw Alberta and Saskatchewan” policies of both the Libs and the NDP. Morever, the ephemeral cap and trade schemes will cripple the economy from coast to coast. With the awful example of Europe’s venture into that insanity to guide them, you’d think that the Canadian left would get a message. I guess that socialists never learn. Meanwhile, the most predatory type of capitalists (those with their lips locked firmly on the government teat) are drooling over the potential for easy money selling hot air, just as in the EU.
Just wait for Michael Byers as PM Layton’s personal foreign policy adviser, and Steve Staples as chief of staff to the MND!
http://www.cdfai.org/the3dsblog/?p=186
http://unambig.com/so-staying-in-afstans-about-the-canadian-brand-eh/
If T. Jack does become PM I fear for relations with the US and the effects on the CF. The NDP ideal is a gendarmerie to serve the UN and to put out forest fires at home (not brush fires abroad): Smokey the Soldier!
“The NDP Platform on Defence”
http://www.cdfai.org/the3dsblog/?p=209
Once they see the budget realities the CF will take real hits, contrary to the platform.
Mark
Ottawa
Since I was rather young at the time, it’s not surprising that there would be things going on of which I was unaware.
Much later, I didn’t see anything particularly to complain about in the case of Mike Harcourt. (Glen Clark, as I’ve already conceded, was another story.)
“overt”? Say what?
Nor do I buy your alarmism over cap & trade.
The fact that you have to respond with abuse says it all.