The story below, by Campbell Clark, appears in the first, news, section of today’s print paper and is in the “News/National” section of the website. Yet the lengthy piece is not a news story at all; it is largely opinion and speculation, much of it the author’s rather than from quoted “experts”. It is effectively a magazine article and should have been run as “Commentary” or something (but what’s a reporter doing writing opinion? yet Globe ones have been doing that for some time).
The new (again!), improved (again!) Globe has abandoned all remaining pretence to being a paper that separates news from opinion. It is an agenda-driven (more here and here) media something or other. So be very wary when you read its “reporting”.
The story:
Canada’s next battle
An important graph from it, just in case you thought the Conservative government has seriously increased defence spending–and remember the CF have actually been fighting a war:
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As for the substance of the article, I doubt that any government will for quite a while be willing to use the Army in any serious combat role, certainly not a sustained one. But it will remain governments’ main tool when they wish to use the CF for important foreign policy purposes.
Like Mr Campbell I have many doubts about the planned F-35 procurement and its costs–as readers of this blog well know–which is why I favour a real competition for the Air Force’s next fighter.
I think Mr Clark is wrong in seeing, and advocating, an important blue water role for the Navy. Its current fighting ships with a long distance capability are our destroyers and frigates. The three destroyers are aged and will be taken out of service in the next few years. The twelve frigates are being modernized (more here).
These destroyers and frigates are eventually to be replaced by up to 15 Canadian Surface Combatants (CSC), supposedly starting around 2017 (see Q14.). Given that the government plans to select only one shipyard to build future combat ships, that the shipyard will have to build ill-conceived Arctic/Offshore Patrol Ships demanded by this government before the CSCs, that the shipyard has not yet been chosen and that no contract has yet been signed for the A/OPS, and that no requirements have been issued for the CSC or schedule outlined, there is zero chance any vessel will appear by 2017 and very likely not for some time thereafter.
And if you thought the F-35 progam, claimed to cost around $16 billion over some 20 years, is expensive, read this carefully:
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The most anticipated vessel in the new wave of shipbuilding is the Canadian Surface Combatant, the 15 ships that will replace the current mix of destroyers and frigates. With acquisition costs of about $26 billion and in-service support estimated at almost $15 billion over twenty years, these ships will be Canada’s military presence on the world’s oceans…
That, dear reader, is $41 billion dollars, well over twice as much as for the F-35s–themselves the most expensive military procurement in Canadian history. I do not believe such costs are affordable; and I do not believe they are realistic especially given the parlous state and capabilities of our shipbuilding industry–and especially with a monopoly builder.
It seems to me Canada should give up trying to maintain a blue water “military presence on the world’s oceans” and focus the Navy primarily on patrolling and protecting our maritime interests out to several hundred nautical miles from shore. That would require ships with a high seas capability, but surely ships less expensive than for a full expeditionary role (and still able to do a Haiti).
Moreover our European allies have a rather large number of destroyers and frigates themselves, to the exent that they are able to contibute to both NATO (along with the US) and EU anti-piracy missions. The time for, and affordability of, a blue water Canadian fleet may be coming to an end.
For more on how difficult, and perishingly slow, it is proving to re-equip the Navy see:
Joint Support Ship effectively sunk
New fighters, Joint Support Ships, and Arctic Offshore Patrol Ships: What’s good enough?..
And for some broader thoughts from Jack Granatstein, our pre-eminent military historian, and me:
The Canadian Forces, war present, and future?
Update: If you think Canadian shipyards, which have not built a large naval vessel since the mid-90s, will just do a bang-up job on future vessels, take a look at the current Australian situation:
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If local naval shipbuilders have trouble constructing three AWDs [air warfare destroyers], based on a tested Spanish design…
At least it looks like we’ll be using a foreign design for reduced-capability Joint Support Ships; imagine the problems if we try to use a Canadian design for the A/OPS or the CSC.
Mark
Ottawa