I don’t need to tell anybody that very little of substance can be extrapolated from polls, other than an inkling of how an election might go down if it were held at that moment. Unfortunately for that theory, the polls would likely be very different if an election were being held that very moment, since the campaign leading up to the election day would be filled with all sorts of reasons to change those results.
So while polls make for an interesting read over the morning coffee, they can’t be used to manufacture complex theories about momentum, political strategy, or the relative likelihood a party will win the next election. And yet there are columnists who do this. All the time.
Take Jane Taber’s latest blog entry in the Globe and Mail. She writes:
“Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals are ready to take on Stephen Harper in a federal campaign as internal polling shows them up three percentage points from the last election and just six points behind the governing Conservatives.”
They are “ready” to take on the Conservatives? According to polls, they’ve been ready all summer long. In fact, Angus Reid showed just a four-point lead for the Conservatives back on August 11.
It was only back in April that Jane Taber was crowing about the ‘Guergisized’ Tories falling into a “statistical tie” with the Liberals [that would be the margin of error]. The actual lead was 31.4 per cent support for the Conservatives and 29 per cent for the Liberals, which means that way back in April the Liberals were far more “ready” to take on the Conservatives than they are now.
Stepping down from the headline somewhat, Ms.Taber writes that the data was presented to the Liberal caucus Tuesday afternoon by party pollster Michael Marzolini, indicating that during the next election the Liberals are expected to be much more competitive with the Tories. Which isn’t really saying anything we haven’t already known for the past half year now. Nor does it really say anything about what will happen in a future election either since, and bear with me here, the future resides in the as-yet unknown events to-be.
If anything, 6 per cent is a terrible polling number, given the fact that the Conservative Party has gone almost MIA during the summer, excepting Stephen Harper riding an ATV in the Arctic circle, while Michael Ignatieff has been doing his best impression of the second Olympic torch relay across Canada. Only that was a lot more interesting.
I can’t imagine how summer poll numbers would even be used as a gauge to how well political parties are performing in the country right now. If given the option between answering a poll about what political party you’d support in some election that hasn’t even been called yet, and getting in one last weekend fishing at the cottage, how quickly do you think you could hit the “end call” button?
Mr.Marzolini apparently said that there are many important issues that are “resonating” with Canadians, such as the long-form census.
Really? Resonating? Even rabid Liberal partisan Warren Kinsella offered a “I can’t see running a national campaign on the long form census” in an interview with The Mark News in July, before revealing even he refused to answer the census when it was delivered to his door.
I think what you’ll find after the end of summer, the resumption of Parliament, and the return of Canadians from the great outdoors, is that this polling data will become irrelevant, the summer issues that seemed so important will disappear like so many Aaron Wherry blog entries about torture in Afghanistan, and the Liberals will still not have written any policy. But don’t let that stop anybody from filling a few quotas between now and then.