It’s always fun to play soothsayer, and then look back and see how utterly wrong you were. I thought I’d compile a list of predictions for the new year, in no particular order, and see what comes of it.

1. MSM Election-Watch
Rife with endless speculation, but I don’t see the opposition parties pulling the trigger in 2011, which means the Harper government goes four years. Whenever the Liberals begin softening their stance, the NDP start voting against the government, and vice versa. Even if both begin voting against the government, the Bloc Quebecois will probably vote with the Conservatives just to keep the ball in their court.

2. Ignatieff stays as Liberal leader
We can expect the same-old same-old from the federal polling scene, as Michael Ignatieff continues to struggle as Liberal leader, and his party remains between three and five points back of the Conservative Party. I do believe Ignatieff will be ousted, however, following an election loss in 2012.

3. Detainees and dithering in Afghanistan
At some point the detainees spinning wheel will overshadow the mission in Afghanistan again, and will dominate the news even as the countdown to the end of our military mission there reaches zero. When Canada is left struggling to find a post-combat training mission in the country, the opposition will point their fingers at the government, even as they distracted it with the detainee bloviating.

4. Julian Assange self-aggrandizes, media lionizes
In desperation to keep in the spotlight, Assange releases files that slightly embarrass the United States. Meanwhile, public opinion shifts away from the self-promoter as the more neutral Open Leaks launches. Assange martyrs himself again by getting arrested.

5. More global cooling, blamed on global warming
Hurricanes, floods, droughts and fires will all be blamed on global warming, even as the temperatures dip for the third year and record cold and snow sweep across Europe. Desperate alarmists blame it on the “ice cube” effect, whereby they argue the world is temporarily cooling because the polar ice caps have melted large chunks of ice into the oceans, cooling the waters.

6. More dhimmitude, even after another large terrorist attack
A dramatic terrorist attack will take place outside of North America, but will be given only peripheral attention by the western liberals, who will continue to blame the problem on foreign occupation and a few bad apples.

7. Israel ups the ante against Iranian Nukes
With intelligence reports that Iran is on the verge of a breakthrough, Israel is forced to act covertly against Iran, sparking international condemnation for the preemptive strike. Hamas and Hezbollah respond by launching terrorist attacks on Israel, and the responding force is also condemned. A Canadian flotilla to Gaza is turned aside, but not boarded, by the IDF.

8. Pakistan gets worse
It becomes clear that Pakistan is now more deadly than Afghanistan or Iraq, as insurgents launch more terrorist attacks than anywhere else in the world. The Pakistani Army is forced to take action, resulting in insurgents fleeing across the border to hide in Afghanistan. Extremists gain a stronger foothold in surrounding “stans”.

9. United States economy rebounds, but nearly bankrupt
Obama’s $150-billion monthly deficits continue, sending public debt over $14 trillion. The economy rebounds but unemployment gets higher as there’s no money left to pay people to “stimulate”. The United States is forced to contend with an overextended military in multiple conflicts that have drained the treasury. Austerity requires unpopular measures that drive Obama’s approval rating below that of George W Bush’s low water mark. Expect protectionism and more insular policies.

10. The rise of Sarah Palin
The soccer mom populist poises herself to lead the Republicans to a shot at becoming the first female President, riding a cusp of Tea Partyism and anti-Obama sentiment. Liberal heads explode the world over.

11. The European Union cracks
As the European Union invites more Euro-value-dragging partners in from the former Eastern Bloc, this time the Balkan states, a large country (like Germany) throws in the towel and leaves the Euro to save itself.

12. The BC NDP blow it
With Gordon Campbell gone, the Liberals rebound and the BC NDP are unable to find a charismatic leader to take the reigns. Infighting results in fracturing the party among the baker’s dozen dissidents and the James loyalists. The HST survives the referendum.